Heat CM: District Heating Potential: Economic Assessment - With Temperature Levels
In A Glance
With this calculation module, you can perform an economic assessment of district-heating (DH) potential and the associated grid investments while explicitly accounting for different supply- and return-temperature levels. Main inputs to the module are heat-demand and gross-floor-area density maps, projected heat-demand and DH-market-share trajectories, user-defined supply/return temperature pairs, country-specific pipe-cost coefficients, depreciation time, discount rate, and a cost ceiling for average heat-distribution costs. Outputs of the model are among all, DH areas, temperature-specific heat-distribution costs, required trench length, and associated operation-and-maintenance expenses.
Introduction
This calculation module uses a heat density map (HDM) of the base and target years and the gross floor area density map of the base year to propose a GIS-based method for determining potential DH areas, with a special emphasis on how the chosen supply- and return-temperature levels influence DH-grid costs. In the toolbox, user has the option to use default data set provided by the toolbox, namely heat demand density map and the gross floor area density map, or use own layers of the same types that are uploaded to the personal citiwatts account. The DH areas are determined by performing sensitivity analyses on the HDM under consideration of the predefined heat distribution cost ceiling. The resulting outputs are temperature-specific indicators such as change in distribution-grid cost, trench length, and operation-and-maintenance (O&M) expenses.
Inputs And Outputs
The input layers and parameters, as well as output layers and parameters for the CM, are as follows:
Input parameters and layers are:
- Input Parameters
- Country - Construction cost constant and coefficient: Default values
- First year of investment
- Last year of investment
- Current DH market share in DH areas [%]
- Expected DH market share in DH areas at the end of the investment period [%]
- Min. heat demand to be supplied to DH areas by DH system at the end of the investment period [GWh]
- Min. heat demand in each hectare of DH areas at the target year. Change if it's absolutely necessary. [MWh]
- DH grid cost ceiling - Avg. DH grid cost in a DH area may not exceed this value [EUR/MWh]
- Depreciation time [years]
- Discount rate [%]
- Supply temperature [°C]
- Return temperature [°C]
- Full load hours
- Max. allowed trench length constructed additionally per year [km/year]
- Existing trench length. Accurate value is required if annual additional trench length should be limited. [km]
- Use country-specific construction cost values? If not, provide them separately under the BASIC INPUTS.
- Construction cost constant [EUR/m]
-
Construction cost coefficient [EUR/m²]
-
Input layers:
-
Heat density map of the base and target years as well as the gross floor area density map of the base year: default maps are provided in the toolbox; own uploaded maps can also be used in the CM
- in raster format (*.tif)
- with 1-hectare resolution
- demand densities in MWh/(ha*a) and gross floor area densities in m2/ha
Output indicators and layers are:
- Output indicators:
- Total demand in the selected region in the first year of investment [GWh]
- Total demand in the selected region in the last year of investment [GWh]
- Total DH potential in the selected region in the first year of investment [GWh]
- Total DH potential in the selected region in the last year of investment [GWh]
- Total distribution pipe trench length [km]
- Total number of coherent areas
- Reference supply/return temperature
- Heat distribution costs for user-defined supply/return temperature (without service pipes)
- Heat distribution costs for reference supply/return temperature (90°C/60°C) (without service pipes)
- Operational & Maintenance costs for user-defined supply/return temperature in 2030
- Operational & Maintenance costs for reference supply/return temperature (90°C/60°C) in 2030
Method
GitHub Repository Of This Calculation Module
The most recent development of this calculation module is available Here.
Sample Run
To run the calculation module, select the city of Offenbach am Main in Germany. Use the navigation bar to quickly zoom into the city. Use the boundary selection at the LAU2 level.
Go to the calculation module tab and select the CM "district heating temperature level". Below you find the list of the input parameters that you can enter. As input layers, we use the default layers. However, it is possible to use your own layers from the user account if you have such layers. Furthermore, it is possible to use CM "Scale heat and cool density maps" or CM "Demand projection" to calculate future heat demand densities.
| Parameter | Unit | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Country - Construction cost constant and coefficient | - | DE: (349, 4273) |
| First year of investment | - | 2025 |
| Last year of investment | - | 2045 |
| Current DH market share in DH areas | % | 30 |
| Expected DH market share in DH areas at the end of the investment period | % | 60 |
| Min. heat demand to be supplied to DH areas by DH system at the end of the investment period | GWh | 3 |
| Min. heat demand in each hectare of DH areas at the target year. Change if it's absolutely necessary. | MWh | 20 |
| DH grid cost ceiling - Avg. DH grid cost in a DH area may not exceed this value | - | 45 |
| Depreciation time | years | 30 |
| Discount rate | % | 5 |
| Supply temperature | °C | 80 |
| Return temperature | °C | 45 |
| Full load hours | h | 2000 |
| Max. allowed trench length constructed additionally per year | km | 100000000 |
| Existing trench length. Accurate value is required if annual additional trench length should be limited. | km | 100000000 |
| Use country-specific construction cost values? If not, provide them separately under the BASIC INPUTS. | - | Yes |
| Electricity price | ct/kWh | 20 |
| Fuel price | ct/kWh | 20 |
| Maintenance fraction | % | 0 |
| Electric pump efficiency | % | 90 |
| Hydraulic pump efficiency | % | 80 |
| Heat generation efficiency | % | 85 |
Run the calculation module and wait until the calculation is over. Below you find the list of the indicators and identified DH areas.
| indicator | value | unit |
|---|---|---|
| Country | DE | DE |
| Total demand in selected region in the first year of investment | 982.41 | GWh |
| Total demand in selected region in the last year of investment | 982.41 | GWh |
| Total DH potential in selected region in the first year of investment | 276,32 | GWh |
| Total DH potential in selected region in the last year of investment | 552,64 | GWh |
| Total distribution pipe trench length | 261,78 | km |
| Total number of coherent areas | 2 | |
| Reference supply/return temperature | 90/60 | °C |
| Heat distribution costs for user-defined supply/return temperature (80°C/45°C) (without service pipes) | 21,03 | EUR/MWh |
| Heat distribution costs for reference supply/return temperature (90°C/60°C) (without service pipes) | 21,49 | EUR/MWh |
| Operational & Maintenance costs for user defined supply/return temperature (80°C/45°C) in 2045 | 6,2 | EUR/MWh |
| Operational & Maintenance costs for reference supply/return temperature (90°C/60°C) in 2045 | 7,86 | EUR/MWh |
References
How To Cite
Authors And Reviewers
License
Acknowledgement
This project has received funding in the framework of the joint programming initiative ERA-Net Smart Energy Systems's focus initiative Digital Transformation for the Energy Transition, with support from the European Unions's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme grant agreement No 883973.