Heat CM: District Heating Potential: Economic Assessment
In A Glance
With this calculation module, you can determine potential district heating (DH) areas based on a simplified assessment of the heat distribution costs. Main inputs to the module are heat demand and gross floor area density maps, development of heat demand and market shares in DH areas, depreciation time, interest rate and a cost ceiling for the heat distribution costs. Outputs of the model are among all, DH areas, heat distribution costs and trench length.
Introduction
This calculation module uses a heat density map (HDM) of the base and target years and the gross floor area density map of the base year to propose a GIS-based method for determining potential DH areas with a specific focus on district heating (DH) grid costs. In the toolbox, user has the option to use default data set provided by the toolbox, namely heat demand density map and the gross floor area density map, or use own layers of the same types that are uploaded to the personal citiwatts account. The DH areas are determined by performing sensitivity analyses on the HDM under consideration of the predefined heat distribution cost ceiling. The outputs are GIS layers that illustrate areas that are potentially suitable for the construction of DH with indicators belonging to each coherent area. The calculation module can be used to study the impact of parameters like grid cost ceiling and market share on the potential and expansion of the DH grids.
Inputs And Outputs
The input layers and parameters, as well as output layers and parameters for the CM, are as follows:
Input parameters and layers are:
- Input Parameters
- Country - Construction cost constant and coefficient: Default values
- First year of investment
- Last year of investment
- Current DH market share in DH areas [%]
- Expected DH market share in DH areas at the end of the investment period [%]
- Min. heat demand to be supplied to DH areas by DH system at the end of the investment period [GWh]
- Min. heat demand in each hectare of DH areas at the target year. Change if it's absolutely necessary. [MWh]
- DH grid cost ceiling - Avg. DH grid cost in a DH area may not exceed this value [EUR/MWh]
- Depreciation time [years]
- Discount rate [%]
- Max. allowed trench length constructed additionally per year [km/year]
- Existing trench length. Accurate value is required if annual additional trench length should be limited. [km]
- Use country-specific construction cost values? If not, provide them separately under the BASIC INPUTS.
- Construction cost constant [EUR/m]
-
Construction cost coefficient [EUR/m²]
-
Input layers:
-
Heat density map of the base and target years as well as the gross floor area density map of the base year: default maps are provided in the toolbox; own uploaded maps can also be used in the CM
- in raster format (*.tif)
- with 1-hectare resolution
- demand densities in MWh/(ha*a) and gross floor area densities in m2/ha
Output indicators and layers are:
- Output indicators:
- Total demand in the selected region in the first year of investment [GWh]
- Total demand in the selected region in the last year of investment [GWh]
- Total DH potential in the selected region in the first year of investment [GWh]
- Total DH potential in the selected region in the last year of investment [GWh]
- Absolute DH grid costs at the start year (YYYY) [Mio. EUR]
- DH grid costs per unit of energy [EUR/MWh]
- DH distribution pipe costs per unit of energy [EUR/MWh]
- DH service pipe costs per unit of energy [EUR/MWh]
- DH distribution pipe costs per meter of trench [EUR/m]
- DH service pipe costs per meter of trench [EUR/m]
- Total distribution pipe trench length [km]
- Total service pipe trench length [km]
-
Total number of coherent areas
-
Output layer:
- Potential DH areas - Shapefile: containing indicators for each identified coherent area
Method
Here, a brief explanation of the methodology is provided. For a more complete explanation of the methodology and formulations, please refer to the open access paper published about this calculation module [1].
The aim of the calculation module is to find regions in which DH systems can be built without exceeding a user-defined average heat distribution costs in EUR/MWh. The procedure is illustrated in the following flowchart [2]. The procedure starts with removing all hectare cells with low annual heat demand. Subsequently, coherent areas are identified, and the average heat distribution cost in each coherent area is calculated and compared with the predefined cost ceiling. If the condition is fulfilled, the coherent area is saved and the calculation continues for the remaining areas with higher pixel threshold (+10 MWh for each loop). If conditions on annual grid expansion are defined as well, it will be checked once DH areas are identified. In case the condition is not fulfilled, the whole calculation is repeated with a higher pixel threshold. The calculation continues until all requirements are fulfilled.
Ref.: [2]
Code Repository Of This Calculation Module
Here you get the bleeding-edge development for this calculation module.
Sample Run
To run the calculation module, select the city of Offenbach am Main in Germany. Use the navigation bar to quickly zoom into the city. Use the boundary selection at the LAU2 level.
Go the to calculation module tab and select the CM "district heating potential economic assessment with temperature levels". Below you find the list of the input parameters that you can enter. As input layers, we use the default layers. However, it is possible to use your own layers from the user account if you have such layers. Furthermore, it is possible to use CM "Scale heat and cool density maps" or CM "Demand projection" to calculate future heat demand densities.
| Parameter | Unit | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Country - Construction cost constant and coefficient | - | DE: (349, 4273) |
| First year of investment | - | 2025 |
| Last year of investment | - | 2045 |
| Current DH market share in DH areas | % | 30 |
| Expected DH market share in DH areas at the end of the investment period | % | 60 |
| Min. heat demand to be supplied to DH areas by DH system at the end of the investment period | GWh | 3 |
| Min. heat demand in each hectare of DH areas at the target year. Change if it's absolutely necessary. | MWh | 20 |
| DH grid cost ceiling - Avg. DH grid cost in a DH area may not exceed this value | - | 45 |
| Depreciation time | years | 30 |
| Discount rate | % | 4 |
| Max. allowed trench length constructed additionally per year | km | 100000000 |
| Existing trench length. Accurate value is required if annual additional trench length should be limited. | km | 100000000 |
| Use country-specific construction cost values? If not, provide them separately under the BASIC INPUTS. | - | Yes |
Run the calculation module and wait until the calculation is over. Below you find the list of the indicators and identified DH areas.
| indicator | value | unit |
|---|---|---|
| Country | DE | DE |
| Total demand in selected region in the first year of investment | 982.41 | GWh |
| Total demand in selected region in the last year of investment | 982.41 | GWh |
| Total DH potential in selected region in the first year of investment | 293.54 | GWh |
| Total DH potential in selected region in the last year of investment | 587.08 | GWh |
| Absolute DH grid costs at start year (2025) | 346.3 | Mio. EUR |
| DH grid costs per unit of energy | 41.76 | EUR/MWh |
| DH distribution pipe costs per unit of energy | 26.26 | EUR/MWh |
| DH service pipe costs per unit of energy | 15.5 | EUR/MWh |
| DH distribution pipe costs per meter of trench | 723.42 | EUR/m |
| DH service pipe costs per meter of trench | 475.24 | EUR/m |
| Total distribution pipe trench length | 301.03 | km |
| Total service pipe trench length | 270.45 | km |
| Total number of coherent areas | 1 |
References
[1] Fallahnejad M, Kranzl L, Haas R, Hummel M, Müller A, García LS, et al. District heating potential in the EU-27: Evaluating the impacts of heat demand reduction and market share growth. Applied Energy 2024;353:122154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122154.
[2] Fallahnejad, M. (2024). Economic assessment of district heating grid infrastructure [Dissertation, Technische Universität Wien]. reposiTUm. https://doi.org/10.34726/hss.2024.125102
How To Cite
Mostafa Fallahnejad, in CITIWATTS-Wiki, CM District heating potential economic assessment
Authors And Reviewers
This page was written by Mostafa Fallahnejad (e-think Energy Research)
License
Copyright © 2024-2025: Mostafa Fallahnejad
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 International License.
SPDX-License-Identifier: CC-BY-4.0
License-Text: https://spdx.org/licenses/CC-BY-4.0.html
Acknowledgement
This project has received funding in the framework of the joint programming initiative ERA-Net Smart Energy Systems's focus initiative Digital Transformation for the Energy Transition, with support from the European Unions's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme grant agreement No 883973.